CONFIRMATION: 
Comparison of Nov. 1, 2004 Election Model projections  
and the 12:22am State and National Exit Polls.

Two-party and total vote share:
Adjust 2-party projections to include 3rd party (1.0% vote).
Deduct 0.5% from Kerry and 0.5% from Bush projected shares.

ELECTION MODEL PROJECTIONS
Nov.1, 2004 

All vote share projections and win probabilities are for Kerry.
Assumption: Kerry wins 67% of undecided voters.

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PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS
MoE = 1.0%

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation 
Kerry won 4972 (99.44%) of 5000 EV trials 
5000 trials     2pty% Total%  EV Win Prob
Wtd Average     51.38% 50.88% 99.44% 

Probability of Kerry majority vote:
Normal Distribution 	
Prob = NORMDIST(0.5138,0.5,0.01/1.96,TRUE)	
Prob = 	0.9965827 = 99.66%
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18 NATIONAL POLLS
MoE = 0.73%

Projections    2pty% Total% Win Prob
Average        51.15  50.75  99.90 
Difference      0.23%  0.13%  0.46% (vs. Monte Carlo)

Probability of Kerry majority vote:
Normal Distribution 	
Prob = NORMDIST(0.5115,0.5,0.0073/1.96,TRUE)	
Prob = 	0.9989913 = 99.90%

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STATE EXIT POLLS  
12:22am Nov.3
73607 respondents
MoE = 0.37%

Projections    2pty% Total% Win Prob
Gender Vote    50.52% 50.02% 99.71% 
Difference      0.86%  0.86%  0.27% (vs. Monte Carlo)

Probability of Kerry majority vote
(Gender demographic)
Normal Distribution 
Prob = NORMDIST(0.5052,0.5,0.0037/1.96,TRUE)
Prob = 0.997061699 = 99.71%

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NATIONAL EXIT POLL  
12:22am Nov.3
13047 respondents
MoE = 1.0%

Projections    2pty% Total% WinProb
Gender Categ.  51.30% 50.78% 99.46% 
Difference      0.15%  0.03%  0.44% (vs. 18 National Polls)

Probability of Kerry majority 
(Gender demographic)
Normal Distribution 
Prob = NORMDIST(0.513,0.5,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
Prob = 0.994582852 = 99.46%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.