Ohio's 49 Exit Poll precincts were a mirror of the 50 state exit polls. 
Thirty-six (36) of 49 precincts moved from Kerry in the exit poll to Bush in
the vote (three did not change). Likewise, forty-two (42) of 50 states deviated
from Kerry to Bush.

Ohio Exit Poll 
12:22am update, 
1963 sample-size.													
This is a link to the Ohio exit poll demographics:
http://www.exitpollz.org/cnn2004epolls/Pres_epolls/OH_P.html

This is a related post which analzes the exit poll demographics:
http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=120&topic_id=906&mesg_id=906

The Gender demographic:
								
	Weight	Vote	Kerry 	Bush 				
Male	   47%	2.644	51.0%	49.0%				
Female   53%	2.981	53.0%	47.0%				
							
Total	100%		52.06%	47.94%				
Votes (mm)	5.625	2.928	2.697				
								
Kerry's margin: 231,750 
								
		Exit 	Actual 2-Party			
Kerry  	      52.06%	48.71%	48.94%			
Bush 		47.94%	50.82%	51.06%			
Diff		4.12%	-2.11%	-2.12%			


For the 1963 sample, the MoE is 2.21%.					
Assuming an  Exit Poll Cluster Effect of 20%,						
at a 95% level of confidence, the adjusted MoE = 2.65%
and the standard deviation = 1.35% = MoE/1.96					
								
Calculating the probability that Kerry won a majority vote in Ohio,
assuming the 20% cluster effect, we get:

Prob = NORMDIST(.5206, .50, .0135, TRUE)= 93.6%.

These are probabilities for a range of clusters:
Cluster Effect			0%	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%
Adjusted MoE			2.21%	2.43%	2.65%	2.87%	3.10%	3.32%
Probability of a								
Kerry win      		96.6%	95.2%	93.6%	92.0%	90.4%	88.8%
3.12% vote discrepancy	0.28%	0.60%	1.06%	1.67%	2.41%	3.26%
								

Ten (10) Ohio precincts flipped to Kerry from Exit Poll to the vote,
 36 flipped to Bush, 3 had no change							
Probability (36 of the 46 which flipped would go to Bush):
P = 7.82086E-05	 or    1 in	12,786						
Eight (8) states flipped to Kerry, 42 to Bush
Probability (42 of 50 flip to Bush):	
P = 5.81778E-07	 or    1 in	1,718,869						
Seven (7) Ohio precincts exceeded the Precinct MoE for Bush, 
just 1 for Kerry.			
Probability (precinct MoE would be exceeded in at least 7 of 49):
P = 0.000208576	 or 1 in 4,794
Note: Precinct MoE = .98/sqrt(40)= 15% (approx.)				
Probability that 16 states would exceed the MoE for Bush, 
 none for Kerry:			
P = 5.24025E-14	 or    1 in	19,083,049,268,519									
											
INDIVIDUAL PRECINCT RESULTS																	
There were 49 Ohio Exit Poll Precincts 						
A total of 1963 respondents	
(approximately 40 respondents per precinct)

Kerry won the poll based on the Gender Demographic: 
Bush	Kerry				
47.94% 52.06%				

Based on the precinct totals below,
Kerry won the poll with 52.2% of the two-party vote
Kerry 1041 	52.2%								
Bush  953  47.8%
(The totals differ slightly from 1963 due to roundoff error in 
the summation of the precinct totals)

N   Precinct   Kerry%	              Kerry 
    Number	Vote	Exit 	WPD	Vote Exit	WPD	%dev	Flip	MoE   Std   >MoE
1	48	22%	38%	-16%	9	15	-6	-40%	Bush	15.0%	7.67%	Bush	
2	14	24%	28%	-4%	10	11	-1	-9%	Bush	13.9%	7.10%		
3	7	25%	34%	-9%	10	14	-4	-29%	Bush	14.7%	7.49%		
4	23	28%	31%	-3%	11	12	-1	-8%	Bush	14.3%	7.31%		
5	26	28%	26%	2%	11	10	1	10%	Kerry	13.6%	6.94%		

6	2	30%	41%	-11%	12	16	-4	-25%	Bush	15.2%	7.78%		
7	3	30%	41%	-11%	12	16	-4	-25%	Bush	15.2%	7.78%		
8	37	30%	32%	-2%	12	13	-1	-8%	Bush	14.5%	7.38%		
9	29	32%	30%	2%	13	12	1	8%	Kerry	14.2%	7.25%		
10	47	32%	43%	-11%	13	17	-4	-24%	Bush	15.3%	7.83%		

11	21	34%	44%	-10%	14	18	-4	-22%	Bush	15.4%	7.85%		
12	28	34%	43%	-9%	14	17	-3	-18%	Bush	15.3%	7.83%		
13	6	36%	53%	-17%	14	21	-7	-33%	Bush	15.5%	7.89%	Bush	
14	15	37%	39%	-2%	15	16	-1	-6%	Bush	15.1%	7.71%		
15	43	37%	49%	-12%	15	20	-5	-25%	Bush	15.5%	7.90%		

16	17	38%	48%	-10%	15	19	-4	-21%	Bush	15.5%	7.90%		
17	19	38%	45%	-7%	15	18	-3	-17%	Bush	15.4%	7.87%		
18	27	38%	67%	-29%	15	27	-12	-44%	Bush	14.6%	7.43%	Bush	
19	30	39%	50%	-11%	16	20	-4	-20%	Bush	15.5%	7.91%		
20	25	40%	68%	-28%	16	27	-11	-41%	Bush	14.5%	7.38%	Bush	

21	18	42%	46%	-4%	17	18	-1	-6%	Bush	15.4%	7.88%		
22	1	43%	50%	-7%	17	20	-3	-15%	Bush	15.5%	7.91%		
23	40	43%	39%	4%	17	16	1	6%	Kerry	15.1%	7.71%		
24	11	45%	41%	4%	18	16	2	13%	Kerry	15.2%	7.78%		
25	46	45%	47%	-2%	18	19	-1	-5%	Bush	15.5%	7.89%		

26	39	46%	54%	-8%	18	22	-4	-18%	Bush	15.4%	7.88%		
27	13	47%	47%	0%	19	19	0	0%	Even	15.5%	7.89%		
28	22	47%	41%	6%	19	16	3	19%	Kerry	15.2%	7.78%		
29	5	48%	41%	7%	19	16	3	19%	Kerry	15.2%	7.78%		
30	34	48%	54%	-6%	19	22	-3	-14%	Bush	15.4%	7.88%		

31	16	51%	57%	-6%	20	23	-3	-13%	Bush	15.3%	7.83%		
32	36	52%	66%	-14%	21	26	-5	-19%	Bush	14.7%	7.49%		
33	50	52%	58%	-6%	21	23	-2	-9%	Bush	15.3%	7.80%		
34	20	54%	69%	-15%	22	28	-6	-21%	Bush	14.3%	7.31%	Bush	
35	42	54%	66%	-12%	22	26	-4	-15%	Bush	14.7%	7.49%		

36	49	54%	58%	-4%	22	23	-1	-4%	Bush	15.3%	7.80%		
37	4	55%	70%	-15%	22	28	-6	-21%	Bush	14.2%	7.25%	Bush	
38	44	55%	55%	0%	22	22	0	0%	Even	15.4%	7.87%		
39	31	57%	68%	-11%	23	27	-4	-15%	Bush	14.5%	7.38%		
40	38	57%	41%	16%	23	16	7	44%	Kerry	15.2%	7.78%	Kerry

41	35	62%	75%	-13%	25	30	-5	-17%	Bush	13.4%	6.85%		
42	9	64%	67%	-3%	26	27	-1	-4%	Bush	14.6%	7.43%		
43	41	66%	57%	9%	26	23	3	13%	Kerry	15.3%	7.83%		
44	12	70%	68%	2%	28	27	1	4%	Kerry	14.5%	7.38%		
45	32	71%	82%	-11%	28	33	-5	-15%	Bush	11.9%	6.07%		

46	8	80%	90%	-10%	32	36	-4	-11%	Bush	9.3%	4.74%	Bush	
47	33	81%	68%	13%	32	27	5	19%	Kerry	14.5%	7.38%		
48	24	85%	87%	-2%	34	35	-1	-3%	Bush	10.4%	5.32%		
49	10	96%	96%	0%	38	38	0	0%	Even	6.1%	3.10%		
                        Total      953   1041    -88	                          
                        
														

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.