This analysis is from the Interactive Election Model, revised National Exit Poll
demographic category vote percentages, using Gender vote percentages as the
baseline.
The purpose was to gain insight into the nature of characteristic vote
deviations between the last pristine exit poll timeline (12:22am) and the final
(1:25 pm). Were the vote percentage deviations consistent in going from 12:22am
to 1:25 pm time lines?
The cause of the deviations are not obvious, so I "homogenized" the
data for comparative purposes. Interested readers may wish to focus on a
particular demographic.
Gender is the most important demographic stat of all. There are no questions to
consider other than the obvious one: who did you vote for. We therefore assume
that of all the demographic categories in the National Exit Poll, Gender
delivers the most accurate national vote. The national vote percentages of all
other demographic categories differ slightly from Gender. heoretically, all
should produce the same national vote, but that would be a highly suspect
result.
So let's "goal-seek" to match the other demographics to the Gender
vote. Start with the actual preliminary and final exit poll time lines. The
actual "Other" (3rd party) vote was 1.0%, so we hold this constant
across all demographics.
Next we adjust the Kerry-Bush percentages to force the total vote as close as
possible to the Gender vote:
12:22am time line: Kerry 50.78 - Bush 48.22%
1:25pm time line : Bush 51.22 - Kerry 47.78%
We force the sum of Kerry, Bush and Other percentages to 100%.
Note: in the actual exit poll data (at the bottom), the 3rd party (Other) vote
total declines in each demographic by approximately 75% (1 million votes) from
the 12:22am preliminary to the 1:25pm final.
Baby, baby, where did our votes go?
Have to ask the Supremes.
On the Other Hand, better not. It's probably just a nit.
_________________________________________________________________________
NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS
REVISED TO MATCH GENDER
Final Recorded Vote
Sample-size 13047 Kerry Bush Other
Cluster effect 20% 48.32% 50.77% 0.91%
MoE w/cluster 1.05% 59.028 62.027 1.116
Total 122.171 votes
Probability of Bush Revised Demographic Vote Percentage Summary
Vote Discrepancy 12:22am (13047 respondents) 1:25 pm (13660 respondents)
1 in Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
1,988,208 Avg 50.85% 48.15% 1.00% 47.89% 51.11% 1.00%
Votes 62.12 58.82 1.23 58.51 62.44 1.23
1,024,707 Gender 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00%
2,624,946 Pty-ID 50.88% 48.12% 1.00% 47.89% 51.11% 1.00%
2,385,678 Vote2k 50.83% 48.13% 1.04% 47.85% 51.11% 1.04%
1,794,576 Region 50.84% 48.16% 1.00% 47.92% 51.08% 1.00%
1,486,818 Edu 50.82% 48.18% 1.00% 47.82% 51.18% 1.00%
1,794,576 Race 50.84% 48.16% 1.00% 47.81% 51.19% 1.00%
5,707,514 Age 50.96% 48.04% 1.00% 47.96% 51.04% 1.00%
1,633,191 Income 50.83% 48.17% 1.00% 47.95% 51.05% 1.00%
1,972,571 Ideol 50.85% 48.15% 1.00% 47.93% 51.07% 1.00%
1,972,571 Relig 50.85% 48.15% 1.00% 47.99% 51.01% 1.00%
1,794,576 Milit 50.84% 48.16% 1.00% 47.84% 51.16% 1.00%
1,972,571 Decided 50.85% 48.15% 1.00% 47.93% 51.07% 1.00%
PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL FINAL EXIT POLL
Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents Nov. 3, 2:04pm, 13660 respondents
GENDER
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Male 46% 56.20 47% 52% 1% 100% 46% 44% 55% 1% 100%
Female 54% 65.97 54% 45% 1% 100% 54% 51% 48% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 100% 100% 47.78% 51.22% 1% 100%
122.17 62.04 58.91 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.37 62.58 1.22 122.17
PARTY ID
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Dem 38% 46.42 90% 9% 1% 100% 37% 89% 10% 1% 100%
Rep 35% 42.76 6% 93% 1% 100% 37% 6% 93% 1% 100%
Ind 27% 32.99 54% 45% 1% 100% 26% 49% 50% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.88% 48.12% 1.00% 100% 100% 47.89% 51.11% 1% 100%
122.17 62.16 58.79 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.51 62.44 1.22 122.17
VOTED IN 2000
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
No 17% 20.77 56% 44% 0% 100% 17% 55% 45% 0% 100%
Gore 39% 47.65 91% 8% 1% 100% 37% 89% 10% 1% 100%
Bush 41% 50.09 9% 90% 1% 100% 43% 8% 91% 1% 100%
Other 3% 3.67 71% 21% 8% 100% 3% 71% 21% 8% 100%
Total 100% 50.83% 48.13% 1% 100% 100% 47.85% 51.11% 1% 100%
122.17 62.10 58.80 1.27 122.17 122.17 58.46 62.44 1.27 122.17
REGION
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
East 22% 26.88 58% 41% 1% 100% 22% 56% 43% 1% 100%
Midwest 26% 31.76 50% 49% 1% 100% 26% 48% 51% 1% 100%
South 31% 37.87 45% 54% 1% 100% 32% 41% 58% 1% 100%
West 21% 25.66 53% 46% 1% 100% 20% 50% 49% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.84% 48.16% 1% 100% 100% 47.92% 51.08% 1% 100%
122.17 62.11 58.84 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.54 62.40 1.22 122.17
EDUCATION
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
NoHS 4% 4.89 53% 46% 1% 100% 4% 50% 49% 1% 100%
HSG 22% 26.88 51% 48% 1% 100% 22% 47% 52% 1% 100%
SomeCol31% 37.87 48% 51% 1% 100% 32% 46% 53% 1% 100%
ColGr 26% 31.76 49% 50% 1% 100% 26% 46% 53% 1% 100%
PostGr 17% 20.77 58% 41% 1% 100% 16% 55% 44% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.82% 48.18% 1% 100% 100.00% 47.82% 51.18% 1% 100%
122.17 62.09 58.86 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.42 62.53 1.22 122.17
RACE AND GENDER
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
WM 36% 43.98 41% 58% 1% 100% 36% 37% 62% 1% 100%
WF 41% 50.09 47% 52% 1% 100% 41% 44% 55% 1% 100%
NWM 10% 12.22 68% 31% 1% 100% 10% 67% 32% 1% 100%
NWF 13% 15.88 77% 22% 1% 100% 13% 75% 24% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.84% 48.16% 1% 100% 100% 47.81% 51.19% 1% 100%
122.17 62.11 58.84 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.41 62.54 1.22 122.17
AGE
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
18-29 17% 20.77 57% 42% 1% 100% 17% 54% 45% 1% 100%
30-44 29% 35.43 49% 50% 1% 100% 29% 46% 53% 1% 100%
45-59 30% 36.65 51% 48% 1% 100% 30% 48% 51% 1% 100%
60+ 24% 29.32 49% 50% 1% 100% 24% 46% 53% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.96% 48.04% 1% 100% 100% 47.96% 51.04% 1% 100%
122.17 62.26 58.69 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.59 62.36 1.22 122.17
INCOME
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
0-15K 9% 11.00 65% 34% 1% 100% 8% 63% 36% 1% 100%
15-30 15% 18.33 59% 40% 1% 100% 15% 57% 42% 1% 100%
30-50 22% 26.88 52% 47% 1% 100% 22% 50% 49% 1% 100%
50-75 23% 28.10 46% 53% 1% 100% 23% 43% 56% 1% 100%
75-100 13% 15.88 48% 51% 1% 100% 14% 44% 55% 1% 100%
100-150 11% 13.44 44% 55% 1% 100% 11% 42% 57% 1% 100%
150-200 4% 4.89 45% 54% 1% 100% 4% 41% 58% 1% 100%
200+ 3% 3.67 41% 58% 1% 100% 3% 35% 64% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.83% 48.17% 1% 100% 100% 47.95% 51.05% 1% 100%
122.17 62.10 58.85 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.58 62.37 1.22 122.17
IDEOLOGY
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Lib 22% 26.88 87% 12% 1% 100% 21% 85% 14% 1% 100%
Mod 45% 54.98 58% 41% 1% 100% 45% 54% 45% 1% 100%
Cons 33% 40.32 17% 82% 1% 100% 34% 17% 82% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.85% 48.15% 1% 100% 100% 47.93% 51.07% 1% 100%
122.17 62.12 58.83 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.56 62.39 1.22 122.17
RELIGION
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Prot 53% 64.75 43% 56% 1% 100% 53% 40% 59% 1% 100%
Cath 27% 32.99 50% 49% 1% 100% 27% 47% 52% 1% 100%
Jew 3% 3.67 77% 22% 1% 100% 3% 74% 25% 1% 100%
Oth 7% 8.55 75% 24% 1% 100% 7% 74% 25% 1% 100%
None 10% 12.22 70% 29% 1% 100% 10% 67% 32% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.85% 48.15% 1% 100% 100% 47.99% 51.01% 1% 100%
122.17 62.12 58.83 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.63 62.32 1.22 122.17
MILITARY
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Yes 18% 21.99 41% 58% 1% 100% 18% 38% 61% 1% 100%
No 82% 100.18 53% 46% 1% 100% 82% 50% 49% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.84% 48.16% 1% 100% 100% 47.84% 51.16% 1% 100%
122.17 62.11 58.84 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.45 62.50 1.22 122.17
WHEN DECIDED
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Today 6% 7.33 65% 34% 1% 100% 5% 59% 40% 1% 100%
Last3 3% 3.67 61% 38% 1% 100% 4% 57% 42% 1% 100%
Last7 2% 2.44 60% 39% 1% 100% 2% 48% 51% 1% 100%
Last30 10% 12.22 60% 39% 1% 100% 10% 54% 45% 1% 100%
Over30 79% 96.52 48% 51% 1% 100% 79% 46% 53% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.85% 48.15% 1% 100% 100% 47.93% 51.07% 1% 100%
122.17 62.12 58.83 1.22 122.17 122.17 58.56 62.39 1.22 122.17
_________________________________________________________________________
NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS
ACTUAL RESULTS
Final Recorded Vote
Sample size 13047 Kerry Bush Other
Cluster effect 20% 48.32% 50.77% 0.91%
MoE w/cluster 1.05% 59.028 62.027 1.116
Total 122.171
Probability of Bush
Vote Discrepancy 12:22am (13047 respondents) 1:25pm (13660 respondents)
1 in Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
44,111,047 Avg 50.79% 47.84% 1.03% 47.94% 51.07% 0.22%
Total Votes 62.05 58.45 1.26 58.56 62.40 0.26
1,024,707 Gender 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 0.00%
1,900,489,566 PartyID 50.69% 47.50% 1.27% 47.89% 50.96% 0.26%
480,036,465 Voted2K 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 48.48% 51.11% 0.26%
14,032,241 Region 50.53% 47.95% 1.00% 48.24% 51.08% 0.42%
1,486,818 Educat 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 47.82% 51.24% 0.42%
35,454,581 Race 50.94% 47.86% 1.00% 47.81% 50.99% 0.23%
220,026,370 Age 50.26% 47.69% 1.05% 47.96% 51.28% 0.29%
7,003,509,262 Income 51.39% 47.39% 0.94% 48.13% 51.02% 0.14%
1,972,571 Ideol 49.85% 48.15% 1.00% 47.25% 51.54% 0.21%
15,533,452 Relig 50.78% 47.94% 1.21% 47.99% 50.77% 0.17%
480,036,465 Milit 51.20% 47.62% 1.00% 48.38% 50.44% 0.00%
14,032,241 Decided 51.23% 47.95% 0.54% 47.50% 51.22% 0.19%
PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL FINAL EXIT POLL
Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents Nov. 3, 2:04pm, 13660 respondents
GENDER
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Male 56.20 46% 47% 52% 1% 100% 46% 44% 55% 0% 99%
Female 65.97 54% 54% 45% 1% 100% 54% 51% 48% 0% 99%
Total 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1% 100% 100% 47.78% 51.22% 0.00% 99%
122.17 62.04 58.91 1.22 122.17 120.95 58.37 62.58 0.00 120.95
PARTY ID
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Dem 46.17 38% 90% 9% 1% 100% 37% 89% 11% 0% 100%
Rep 42.53 35% 7% 92% 1% 100% 37% 6% 93% 0% 99%
Ind 32.81 27% 52% 44% 2% 98% 26% 49% 48% 1% 98%
Total 100% 50.69% 47.50% 1.27% 99.46% 100% 47.89% 50.96% 0.26% 99.11%
121.51 61.93 58.03 1.55 121.51 121.08 58.51 62.26 0.32 121.08
VOTED IN 2000
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
No 20.77 17% 57% 41% 2% 100% 17% 54% 45% 1% 100%
Gore 47.65 39% 91% 8% 1% 100% 37% 90% 10% 0% 100%
Bush 50.09 41% 10% 90% 0% 100% 43% 9% 91% 0% 100%
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 100% 3% 71% 21% 3% 95%
Total 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 100% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.26% 99.85%
122.17 62.81 58.18 1.19 122.17 121.99 59.23 62.44 0.32 121.99
REGION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
East 26.74 22% 58% 41% 1% 100% 22% 56% 43% 1% 100%
Midw 31.60 26% 50% 49% 1% 100% 26% 48% 51% 0% 99%
South 37.68 31% 44% 54% 1% 99% 32% 42% 58% 0% 100%
West 25.52 21% 53% 45% 1% 99% 20% 50% 49% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.53% 47.95% 1.00% 99.48% 100% 48.24% 51.08% 0.42% 99.74%
121.54 61.73 58.58 1.22 121.54 121.85 58.94 62.40 0.51 121.85
EDUCATION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
NoHS 4.89 4% 53% 46% 1% 100% 4% 50% 49% 0% 99%
HSGr 26.88 22% 50% 48% 2% 100% 22% 47% 52% 0% 99%
Coll 37.87 31% 48% 51% 1% 100% 32% 46% 54% 0% 100%
ColGr 31.76 26% 49% 50% 1% 100% 26% 46% 52% 1% 99%
PostGr20.77 17% 57% 41% 2% 100% 16% 55% 44% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 100% 100% 47.82% 51.24% 0.42% 99.48%
122.17 61.61 58.86 1.70 122.17 121.54 58.42 62.60 0.51 121.54
RACE AND GENDER
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
WM 43.89 36% 41% 58% 1% 100% 36% 37% 62% 0% 99%
WF 49.99 41% 47% 52% 1% 100% 41% 44% 55% 0% 99%
NwM 12.19 10% 69% 28% 1% 98% 10% 67% 30% 1% 98%
NwF 15.85 13% 77% 22% 1% 100% 13% 75% 24% 1% 100%
Total 100% 50.94% 47.86% 1.00% 99.80% 100% 47.81% 50.99% 0.23% 99.03%
121.93 62.23 58.47 1.22 121.93 120.99 58.41 62.29 0.28 120.99
AGE
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
18-29 20.56 17% 56% 42% 1% 99% 17% 54% 45% 0% 99%
30-44 35.08 29% 48% 49% 2% 99% 29% 46% 53% 1% 100%
45-59 36.28 30% 51% 47% 1% 99% 30% 48% 51% 0% 99%
60+ 29.03 24% 48% 51% 0% 99% 24% 46% 54% 0% 100%
Total 100% 50.26% 47.69% 1.05% 99% 100% 47.96% 51.28% 0.29% 99.53%
120.95 61.40 58.26 1.28 120.95 121.60 58.59 62.65 0.35 121.60
INCOME
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
0-15K 10.96 9% 65% 34% 1% 100% 8% 63% 36% 0% 99%
15-30 18.27 15% 60% 38% 1% 99% 15% 57% 42% 0% 99%
30-50 26.80 22% 53% 46% 1% 100% 22% 50% 49% 0% 99%
50-75 28.02 23% 46% 53% 1% 100% 23% 43% 56% 0% 99%
75-100 15.84 13% 48% 51% 0% 99% 14% 45% 55% 0% 100%
100-150 13.40 11% 45% 53% 2% 100% 11% 42% 57% 1% 100%
150-200 4.87 4% 47% 53% 0% 100% 4% 42% 58% 0% 100%
200+ 3.65 3% 41% 58% 1% 100% 3% 35% 63% 1% 99%
Total 100% 51.39% 47.39% 0.94% 99.72% 100% 48.13% 51.02% 0.14% 99.29%
121.83 62.78 57.90 1.15 121.83 121.30 58.80 62.33 0.17 121.30
IDEOLOGY
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Lib 26.61 22% 86% 12% 1% 99% 21% 85% 13% 1% 99%
Mod 54.43 45% 57% 41% 1% 99% 45% 54% 45% 0% 99%
Con 39.91 33% 16% 82% 1% 99% 34% 15% 84% 0% 99%
Total 100% 49.85% 48.15% 1.00% 99% 100% 47.25% 51.54% 0.21% 99%
120.95 60.90 58.83 1.22 120.95 120.95 57.73 62.97 0.26 120.95
RELIGION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Prot 64.71 53% 43% 56% 1% 100% 53% 40% 59% 0% 99%
Cath 32.96 27% 50% 49% 1% 100% 27% 47% 52% 0% 99%
Jew 3.66 3% 78% 22% 0% 100% 3% 74% 25% 0% 99%
Oth 8.55 7% 75% 21% 3% 99% 7% 74% 23% 1% 98%
None 12.21 10% 69% 290% 2% 100% 10% 67% 31% 1% 99%
Total 100% 50.78% 47.94% 1.21% 99.93% 100% 47.99% 50.77% 0.17% 98.93%
122.09 62.04 58.57 1.48 122.09 120.86 58.63 62.03 0.21 120.86
MILITARY
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Yes 21.95 18% 43% 55% 1% 99% 18% 41% 57% 0% 98%
No 100.00 82% 53% 46% 1% 100% 82% 50% 49.00% 0.00% 99%
Total 100% 51.20% 47.62% 1.00% 99.82% 100% 48.38% 50.44% 0.00% 98.82%
121.95 62.55 58.18 1.22 121.95 120.73 59.11 61.62 0.00 120.73
WHEN DECIDED
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Total Weight Kerry Bush Other Total
Today 7.31 6% 53% 40% 5% 98% 5% 52% 45% 1% 98%
Last3 3.65 3.00% 53% 41% 4% 98% 4% 55% 42% 1 98%
Last7 2.44 2% 48% 51% 1% 100% 2% 48% 51% 0% 99%
Last30 12.18 10% 60% 38% 1% 99% 10% 54% 44% 1% 99%
Over30 96.24 79% 50% 50% 0% 100% 79% 46% 53% 0% 99%
Total 100% 51.23% 47.95% 0.54% 99.72% 100% 47.50% 51.22% 0.19% 98.91%
121.83 62.59 58.58 0.66 121.83 120.84 58.03 62.58 0.23 120.84