| Go back to previous topic | | Forum name | Elections & Voting Rights | | Topic subject | THE CLINCHER: IT DROVE THE NAYSAYERS NUTS! | | Topic URL | http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=120&topic_id=537 |
537, THE CLINCHER: IT DROVE THE NAYSAYERS NUTS!
Posted by TruthIsAll, Wed Oct-12-05 06:21 PM
It's in the Interactive Election Model.
THE VOTED IN 2000 DEMOGRAPHIC
The National Exit Poll weights are IMPOSSIBLE in both timelines.
We will now prove that the 41% Bush/39% Gore 2000 voter split in the
Preliminary National Exit poll (13047 respondents), which Kerry WON by 51-48%,
and the 43%/37% split in the Final (13660 respondents), which Kerry LOST by
51-48%, are BOTH impossible.
Naysayers, refute that.
Here's the proof:
Bush got 50.456 mm votes in 2000, or 41.30% of the 2004 vote (122.2 mm).
Gore got 51.0 mm (41.75%)
Nader got 2.883 mm (2.36%)
Naysayers, refute that.
But this assumes that ALL 2000 voters were still alive AND voted in 2004.
We know can calculate the approximate number who died, since the annual U.S.
death rate is 0.87%, or 3.5% between elections.
Naysayers, refute that.
THIS TELLS US THAT THE FINAL EXIT POLL, WHICH WAS MATCHED TO THE RECORDED VOTE,
OVERSTATED THE BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 4 MILLION VOTES.
Naysayers, refute that.
It's very simple, although it took SIX months before the naysayers got it.
And so they had to come up with another faith-based argument: Gore voters
forgot or lied when they were interviwed by the exit pollsters and said they
voted for Bush in 2000. Really, that's what they have been reduced to.
Naysayers, refute that.
Calculate the revised realistic,plausible MAXIMUM weightings:
Voted 2000 Pct Died Alive Revised
Gore 51.00 41.75% 1.79 49.22 40.28%
Bush 50.46 41.30% 1.77 48.69 39.85%
Nader 2.88 2.36% 0.10 2.78 2.28%
They are the MAXIMUM weights because we know that some 2000 voters did not vote
in 2004.
Naysayers, refute that.
But let's assume that all 2000 voters turned out in 2004.
With the revised weightings, Kerry is the CLEAR winner, EVEN USING THE FINAL
EXIT POLL PERCENTAGES.
Naysayers, refute that.
MORE LIKELY, USING THE 13047 EXIT POLL TIMELINE, KERRY WON BY 6.7MM VOTES!
IT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE.
Naysayers, refute that.
THE PROBABILITY OF THESE DEVIATIONS FROM THE RECORDED VOTE ARE ASTRONOMICAL:
1 IN 15-21 TRILLION (SEE BELOW).
12:22am (13047 respondents) Final 2:04pm (13660)
Voted
2000 Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other Total Mix Kerry Bush Other Total
No 17.58% 21.48 57% 41% 2% 100% 17.58% 54% 45% 1% 100%
Gore 40.28% 49.22 91% 8% 1% 100% 40.28% 90% 10% 0% 100%
Bush 39.85% 48.69 10% 90% 0% 100% 39.85% 9% 91% 0% 100%
Other 2.28% 2.79 71% 21% 8% 100% 2.28% 71% 21% 8% 100%
Total 100% 52.28% 46.78% 0.94% 100% 50.96% 48.69% 0.36%
Vote 122.17 63.88 57.15 1.14 122.17 62.25 59.48 0.44
Kerry Margin: 6.73 million Kerry Margin: 2.77 million
The probabilities of these vote discrepancies, assuming a 1.05% Exit Poll MoE
(20% CLUSTER effect):
Kerry:1 in 15.0 trillion =1/NORMDIST(.5228,.4832,.0105/1.96,TRUE)
Naysayers, refute that.
Bush: 1 in 20.8 trillion = 1/(NORMDIST(.4678,.5077,.0105/1.96,TRUE)
Naysayers, refute that.
Compare these to the odds that Bush's vote would exceed the MoE in 16 states:
1 in 19.1 trillion.
Naysayers, refute that.
No states exceeded the MoE for Kerry.
Naysayers, refute that.
If Kerry won 57% of New Voters (see 12:22am timeline) then assuming 100% Bush
2000 voter turnout, then:
a) for Kerry to just tie Bush, he needed a MINIMUM 80% Gore voter turnout.
Very plausible.
Naysayers, refute that.
b) for Bush to win by 3mm votes, he needed a MAXIMUM 71% Gore turnout.
Impossible.
Naysayers, refute that.
If Kerry won 54% of New Voters (see 1:25pm final) then:
a) for Kerry to tie Bush, he needed a MINIMUM 85% Gore voter turnout.
Very plausible.
Naysayers, refute that.
b) for Bush to win by 3mm votes, he needed a MAXIMUM 77% Gore turnout.
Impossible.
Naysayers, refute that.
Here's a table of Kerry's popular vote percentage for any combination of
Kerry's share of New voters and Gore 2000 voter turnout, along with
the corresponding table of Kerry's margin of victory.
We'll assume 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout. Lets give the naysayers the benefit
of the doubt. Even this won't help their case; in fact, it destroys it.
They are hoisted by their own petard.
Naysayers, refute that.
National Exit Poll Sensitivity Analysis
Effect of New Voter Share and Gore Voter Turnout
on Kerry's Vote Percentage and Margin
(assume 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout)
Respondents 11027 13047 13660
Updated 7:33pm 12:22am 2:04pm
Gore Revised Did Not Kerry Percentage of New Voters
Turnout Weight Vote 60.0% 59.0% 58.0% 57.0% 56.0% 55.0% 54.0% 53.0% 52.0% 51.0%
Kerry National Vote
100.0% 40.28% 17.58% 52.8% 52.6% 52.5% 52.3% 52.1% 51.9% 51.8% 51.6% 51.4% 51.2%
99.0% 39.88% 17.98% 52.7% 52.5% 52.3% 52.1% 52.0% 51.8% 51.6% 51.4% 51.2% 51.1%
98.0% 39.48% 18.39% 52.6% 52.4% 52.2% 52.0% 51.8% 51.6% 51.5% 51.3% 51.1% 50.9%
97.0% 39.08% 18.79% 52.4% 52.2% 52.1% 51.9% 51.7% 51.5% 51.3% 51.1% 50.9% 50.7%
96.0% 38.67% 19.19% 52.3% 52.1% 51.9% 51.7% 51.5% 51.4% 51.2% 51.0% 50.8% 50.6%
95.0% 38.27% 19.60% 52.2% 52.0% 51.8% 51.6% 51.4% 51.2% 51.0% 50.8% 50.6% 50.4%
94.0% 37.87% 20.00% 52.1% 51.9% 51.7% 51.5% 51.3% 51.1% 50.9% 50.7% 50.5% 50.3%
93.0% 37.46% 20.40% 51.9% 51.7% 51.5% 51.3% 51.1% 50.9% 50.7% 50.5% 50.3% 50.1%
92.0% 37.06% 20.80% 51.8% 51.6% 51.4% 51.2% 51.0% 50.8% 50.6% 50.4% 50.1% 49.9%
91.0% 36.66% 21.21% 51.7% 51.5% 51.3% 51.1% 50.8% 50.6% 50.4% 50.2% 50.0% 49.8%
90.0% 36.26% 21.61% 51.6% 51.3% 51.1% 50.9% 50.7% 50.5% 50.3% 50.1% 49.8% 49.6%
89.0% 35.85% 22.01% 51.4% 51.2% 51.0% 50.8% 50.6% 50.3% 50.1% 49.9% 49.7% 49.5%
88.0% 35.45% 22.42% 51.3% 51.1% 50.9% 50.6% 50.4% 50.2% 50.0% 49.7% 49.5% 49.3%
87.0% 35.05% 22.82% 51.2% 51.0% 50.7% 50.5% 50.3% 50.0% 49.8% 49.6% 49.4% 49.1%
86.0% 34.64% 23.22% 51.1% 50.8% 50.6% 50.4% 50.1% 49.9% 49.7% 49.4% 49.2% 49.0%
85.0% 34.24% 23.62% 50.9% 50.7% 50.5% 50.2% 50.0% 49.8% 49.5% 49.3% 49.0% 48.8%
84.0% 33.84% 24.03% 50.8% 50.6% 50.3% 50.1% 49.9% 49.6% 49.4% 49.1% 48.9% 48.7%
83.0% 33.44% 24.43% 50.7% 50.4% 50.2% 50.0% 49.7% 49.5% 49.2% 49.0% 48.7% 48.5%
82.0% 33.03% 24.83% 50.6% 50.3% 50.1% 49.8% 49.6% 49.3% 49.1% 48.8% 48.6% 48.3%
81.0% 32.63% 25.24% 50.4% 50.2% 49.9% 49.7% 49.4% 49.2% 48.9% 48.7% 48.4% 48.2%
80.0% 32.23% 25.64% 50.3% 50.1% 49.8% 49.5% 49.3% 49.0% 48.8% 48.5% 48.3% 48.0%
79.0% 31.82% 26.04% 50.2% 49.9% 49.7% 49.4% 49.1% 48.9% 48.6% 48.4% 48.1% 47.8%
78.0% 31.42% 26.44% 50.1% 49.8% 49.5% 49.3% 49.0% 48.7% 48.5% 48.2% 47.9% 47.7%
77.0% 31.02% 26.85% 49.9% 49.7% 49.4% 49.1% 48.9% 48.6% 48.3% 48.1% 47.8% 47.5%
76.0% 30.62% 27.25% 49.8% 49.5% 49.3% 49.0% 48.7% 48.5% 48.2% 47.9% 47.6% 47.4%
75.0% 30.21% 27.65% 49.7% 49.4% 49.1% 48.9% 48.6% 48.3% 48.0% 47.8% 47.5% 47.2%
74.0% 29.81% 28.06% 49.6% 49.3% 49.0% 48.7% 48.4% 48.2% 47.9% 47.6% 47.3% 47.0%
73.0% 29.41% 28.46% 49.4% 49.2% 48.9% 48.6% 48.3% 48.0% 47.7% 47.4% 47.2% 46.9%
72.0% 29.00% 28.86% 49.3% 49.0% 48.7% 48.4% 48.2% 47.9% 47.6% 47.3% 47.0% 46.7%
71.0% 28.60% 29.26% 49.2% 48.9% 48.6% 48.3% 48.0% 47.7% 47.4% 47.1% 46.8% 46.6%
Gore Revised Did Not Kerry Percentage of New Voters
Turnout Weight Vote 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51%
Kerry Margin (millions)
100% 40.28% 17.58% 8.01 7.59 7.16 6.73 6.30 5.87 5.44 5.01 4.58 4.15
99% 39.88% 17.98% 7.71 7.27 6.83 6.39 5.95 5.51 5.07 4.63 4.19 3.75
98% 39.48% 18.39% 7.40 6.96 6.51 6.06 5.61 5.16 4.71 4.26 3.81 3.36
97% 39.08% 18.79% 7.10 6.64 6.18 5.72 5.26 4.80 4.34 3.89 3.43 2.97
96% 38.67% 19.19% 6.79 6.33 5.86 5.39 4.92 4.45 3.98 3.51 3.04 2.57
95% 38.27% 19.60% 6.49 6.01 5.53 5.05 4.57 4.09 3.62 3.14 2.66 2.18
94% 37.87% 20.00% 6.18 5.70 5.21 4.72 4.23 3.74 3.25 2.76 2.27 1.79
93% 37.46% 20.40% 5.88 5.38 4.88 4.38 3.88 3.39 2.89 2.39 1.89 1.39
92% 37.06% 20.80% 5.57 5.07 4.56 4.05 3.54 3.03 2.52 2.02 1.51 1.00
91% 36.66% 21.21% 5.27 4.75 4.23 3.71 3.20 2.68 2.16 1.64 1.12 0.60
90% 36.26% 21.61% 4.96 4.44 3.91 3.38 2.85 2.32 1.80 1.27 0.74 0.21
89% 35.85% 22.01% 4.66 4.12 3.58 3.04 2.51 1.97 1.43 0.89 0.36 -0.18
88% 35.45% 22.42% 4.35 3.81 3.26 2.71 2.16 1.61 1.07 0.52 -0.03 -0.58
87% 35.05% 22.82% 4.05 3.49 2.93 2.38 1.82 1.26 0.70 0.15 -0.41 -0.97
86% 34.64% 23.22% 3.74 3.18 2.61 2.04 1.47 0.91 0.34 -0.23 -0.80 -1.36
85% 34.24% 23.62% 3.44 2.86 2.28 1.71 1.13 0.55 -0.03 -0.60 -1.18 -1.76
84% 33.84% 24.03% 3.13 2.55 1.96 1.37 0.78 0.20 -0.39 -0.98 -1.56 -2.15
83% 33.44% 24.43% 2.83 2.23 1.63 1.04 0.44 -0.16 -0.75 -1.35 -1.95 -2.54
82% 33.03% 24.83% 2.52 1.92 1.31 0.70 0.10 -0.51 -1.12 -1.73 -2.33 -2.94
81% 32.63% 25.24% 2.22 1.60 0.98 0.37 -0.25 -0.87 -1.48 -2.10 -2.72 -3.33
80% 32.23% 25.64% 1.91 1.29 0.66 0.03 -0.59 -1.22 -1.85 -2.47 -3.10 -3.73
79% 31.82% 26.04% 1.61 0.97 0.33 -0.30 -0.94 -1.57 -2.21 -2.85 -3.48 -4.12
78% 31.42% 26.44% 1.30 0.66 0.01 -0.64 -1.28 -1.93 -2.58 -3.22 -3.87 -4.51
77% 31.02% 26.85% 1.00 0.34 -0.32 -0.97 -1.63 -2.28 -2.94 -3.60 -4.25 -4.91
76% 30.62% 27.25% 0.69 0.03 -0.64 -1.31 -1.97 -2.64 -3.30 -3.97 -4.64 -5.30
75% 30.21% 27.65% 0.39 -0.29 -0.97 -1.64 -2.32 -2.99 -3.67 -4.34 -5.02 -5.69
74% 29.81% 28.06% 0.08 -0.60 -1.29 -1.98 -2.66 -3.35 -4.03 -4.72 -5.40 -6.09
73% 29.41% 28.46% -0.22 -0.92 -1.61 -2.31 -3.01 -3.70 -4.40 -5.09 -5.79 -6.48
72% 29.00% 28.86% -0.53 -1.23 -1.94 -2.64 -3.35 -4.06 -4.76 -5.47 -6.17 -6.88
71% 28.60% 29.26% -0.83 -1.55 -2.26 -2.98 -3.69 -4.41 -5.12 -5.84 -6.55 -7.27
|
538, Wow.....That puts the final nail in the coffin....
Posted by All_The_States, Wed Oct-12-05 07:12 PM
I'm not sure how the fraud was done there, but those exit poll results are IMPOSSIBLE!
Someone add-in the Gender Weightings smoking gun......And Mitofsky's arguments are TOAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:salute:
ATS
|
544, TIA -Just popped in from DU-to say thanks!
Posted by jarnocan, Thu Oct-13-05 04:01 AM
This SITE is going to be very worthwhile to explore and learn from, I can tell already!
Thank you for all you have done and are doing. You keep hope alive.
Did that Jimmy Carter statement get any mainstream media play?
I really do beleive we should / NEED to have a general strike/action etc. on NOV 2nd. I hope people will NOT just act like it is just another day. We don't all have to agree on everything to KNOW we need change.
| |