For What It's Worth: Comparing the 2004 and 2006 National Exit Polls

http://forwhatitsworth.cf.huffingtonpost.com/

Something is happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear

The lines are growing quite long
People just want to go home

The machines have a pattern in here
What it means is you've got to beware

Paranoia strikes deep
Into your lives it did creep

You better stop, hey, look around
Everybody look what's going down

Why won't they just count our votes?
They reflect all of our hopes

They say the machines work just fine
But they still lose OUR votes most of the time

You better stop,
Hey, what's that sound?
All those votes are going down
________________________________________________________

Let's compare the 2004 and 2006 exit polls
.
2004 National Exit Poll Summary
............ Kerry Bush Other Margin 
12:22am.....51.4 46.8 0.6 4.6 preliminary (13047 respondents)
Final.......47.6 51.2 1.2 -4.6 final (13660 respondents)
Adjusted....52.3 46.8 0.9 5.7 adjusted to 2004 NEP (12:22am)
.
2006 National Exit Poll Summary
............Dem Rep Other Margin 
7pm.......54.6 43.1 2.3 11.5 preliminary (13028 respondents)
Final.......52.2 45.9 1.9 6.3 final (13051 respondents)
Adj.........56.1 42.4 1.5 13.7 adjusted to 2004 NEP (12:22am)
.
Notice a pattern here?
1) The NEP right after the polls close show a solid Democratic win.
2) The following afternoon, Final NEP cuts the Dem vote share by 3-4%.
3) The adjusting weightings shows it was a bigger landslide than thought.
.

2004 NEP
--------
2004 preliminary NEP weights (39 Gore /41 Bush)
were radically changed in the Final to 37 Gore/43 Bush.
The number of respondents changed from 13047 to 13660.
.
The Preliminary NEP had Kerry the winner: 51.4-46.8%.
(the Gore/Bush 39/41% weights were mathematically impossible)
.
The Final NEP matched to the vote and had Bush the winner: 51.2-47.6%
(the Gore/Bush 37/43% weights were mathematically impossible)
.
The 12:22am adjusted NEP had Kerry the winner: 52.3-46.8%
(the Gore/Bush 39/41% weights were adjusted to a plausible 40.2/39.8) 

.
2004 National Exit Poll Summary
.
...........Kerry Bush Other Margin 
12:22am.....51.4 46.8 0.6 4.6 preliminary (13047 respondents)
Final.......47.6 51.2 1.2 -4.6 final (13660 respondents)
Adjusted....52.3 46.8 0.9 5.7 adjusted to 2004 NEP (12:22am)

.
Preliminary NEP: 11/02, 12:22am 
.
How Voted in 2000 (not reported) 
......Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 17% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 39% 91% 9% 0
Bush 41% 10% 90% 0
Other 3% 71% 21% 8%
.
Total 100% 51.4% 46.8% 0.6%
.
Final NEP: 11/02, 2:04 pm
How Voted in 2000 
......Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 17% 54% 45% 1%
Gore 37% 90% 9% 1%
Bush 43%  7% 92% 1%
Nader 3% 71% 21% 8%

Total 100% 47.6% 51.2% 1.2%
.

Preliminary NEP: 11/02, 12:22am 
Adjusted to plausible weights
.
.......Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 17.7% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 40.2% 91% 8% 1% Gore had 51mm votes
Bush 39.8% 10% 90% 0% Bush had 50.46mm votes
Nader 2.3% 71% 21% 8%
.
Total 100% 52.3% 46.8% 0.9%


____________________________________________
.
2006 NEP
--------
The 7pm NEP weights (45 Kerry /46 Bush) were radically changed in the Final to 43 Kerry/49 Bush. The number of respondents only changed from 13028 to 13251.
.
2006 National Exit Poll Summary
.
.......Dem Rep Other Margin 
7pm... 54.6 43.1 2.3 11.5 preliminary (13028 respondents)
Final..52.2 45.9 1.9 6.3 final (13051 respondents)
Adj....56.1 42.4 1.5 13.7 adjusted to 2004 NEP (12:22am)
.
When adjusted to the preliminary 2004 results (Kerry 51.4-46.8)
the Democrats win by 56.1-42.4, a 13.7% margin.
This EXACTLY matched the Generic pre-election projection.
.

PRELIMINARY CNN 2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
11/07: 7pm 
13208 respondents 
MOE: 0.87% 
.
VOTED IN 2004 
------------
......Mix Dem GOP Other
Kerry 45% 94% 5% 1% 
Bush 46% 13% 85% 2% 
Other 5% 62% 21% 17%
DNV.. 4% 79% 18% 3%
.
Total 100% 54.6% 43.1% 2.3%
.

FINAL CNN 2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
(unrealistic weights)
11/08: 1pm 
13251 respondents 
.
.......Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 43% 92% 7% 1%
Bush 49% 15% 83% 2%
Other 4% 66% 23% 11%
DNV 4% 66% 32% 2%
.
Total 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9%
.

FINAL CNN 2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
(Weights adjusted to match the 12:22am 2004 NEP)
.
.......Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 50% 92% 7% 1% Kerry won the 12:22am NEP 51.4-46.8%
Bush 45% 15% 83% 2%
Other 1% 66% 23% 11% The third party vote was 1%
DNV 4% 66% 32% 2%
.
Total 100% 56.1% 42.4% 1.6%