How many votes were switched from Kerry to Bush?
4.5 million.

Assumptions:
1) The Census estimate that 125.7mm (0.30%MoE) voted in 2004 is correct.
The 2004 total recorded vote was 122.3mm. Assume that the 3.4mm discrepancy is due to spoiled and/or lost ballots.

2) Allocate the 3.4mm lost/spoiled votes to Kerry (2.5mm) and Bush (0.9mm).
In every presidential election, the vast majority of spoiled/lost votes occur
in democratic minority districts.

3) Assume 95% of 2000 Gore and Bush voters turned out to vote in 2004.

4) Adjust the 12:22am National Exit Poll "How Voted in 2000" weights.
The 41% Bush/39% Gore weights are mathematically impossible.
Change to 38.2% Gore/37.8% Bush.

The new weights are a function of:
a) total recorded 2000 vote (Gore 51.0mm-Bush 50.45mm)
b) 0.87%/year mortality rate (3.5% over 4 years)
c) 95% turnout of 2000 Bush and Gore voters.

5) Assume the 12:22am NEP vote shares are correct.

Calculations:
1)Start with the Recorded Vote count:
Bush 62.0mm
Kerry 59.0mm
Other 1.3mm

2) Allocate 3.4mm spoiled/lost votes (2.5mm to Kerry; 0.9mm to Bush):
Bush 62.9mm
Kerry 61.5mm

3) Calculate the Kerry/Bush total vote share (see below):
Kerry 66.0mm (52.5%)
Bush 58.4mm (46.5%)
Other 1.3mm (1.0%)

4) Solve for X, the switched votes:
Kerry: X = 66.0 - 61.5
Bush:-X = 58.4 - 62.9

X = 4.5mm votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.

				Sensitivity analysis: switched votes (mm)
......Votes....				
Recorded	Lost	0	1	2	2.5	3	3.5	4	4.5
____________________________________________________________________
Kerry	59	2.5	61.5	62.5	63.5	64	64.5	65	65.5	66.02
Bush	62	0.9	62.9	61.9	60.9	60.4	59.9	59.4	58.9	58.43
Other	1.3	0	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.25
Total	122.3	3.4	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7
-----
Kerry	48.2%	2.0%	48.9%	49.7%	50.5%	50.9%	51.3%	51.7%	52.1%	52.5%
Bush	50.7%	0.7%	50.0%	49.2%	48.4%	48.1%	47.7%	47.3%	46.9%	46.5%
Margin	-3.0	1.6	-1.4	0.6	2.6	3.6	4.6	5.6	6.6	7.59
------------										

NEP (adj. plausible weights, 125.7mm votes)					
Voted in 2000 Demographic							
Turnout:95%						
Voted	Weight Votes	Kerry	Bush	Nader		
No	21.77% 27.36	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%	
Gore	38.24% 48.06	91.0%	8.0%	1.0%	
Bush	37.83% 47.55	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	
Other	 2.17%  2.72	71.0%	21.0%	8.0%      
-----
Share 100%	125.7	52.5% 46.5% 1.0%					
Vote	100%  125.7	66.0  58.4  1.3					

Kerry margin: 7.59 million						
---------										
										
Sensitivity	of Kerry Vote to Turnout		
Turnout% Kerry% Margin(mm)	
90	   52.76	8.25	
95	   52.52	7.59	
98	   52.38	7.20	
100	   52.29	6.93	
---------										

Actual NEP (impossible weights,122.3mm votes)
Voted	Weight	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other					
No	17%	20.79	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%					
Gore	39%	47.70	91.0%	 8.0%	1.0%					
Bush	41%	50.14	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%					
Other	3%	3.67	71.0%	21.0%	8.0%					
-----										
Share	100%  122.3	51.4% 47.6% 1.0%			
Vote	100%	122.3	62.97	58.2	1.2					

Kerry margin: 4.64 million