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Using Pre-Election Polls to Check the Validity of the Final Exit Polls
By Tim Lohrentz
January 6, 2005

It is now well known that the final exit polls from the November 2 Presidential contest between George W.Bush and John Kerry were adjusted (weighted) once actual vote tallies arrived in order to match the
reported vote. This paper will first demonstrate that the weighting process was invalid. In other words, it is mathematically impossible to match the exit polls to the reported results of the popular vote. Then this
paper will compare exit poll results to pre-election poll trends over the last month leading up to the election and then provide some other clues regarding which states may have fraudulent results.

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The fixed exit polls are trying to convince us of a Bush win based on a mathematical impossibility.Equally important, once you change the weighting of the poll, the whole thing, all the questions, need tobe re-weighted. This can not be explained by the margin of error. Once you do the re-weighting, thereported results will be outside the margin of error of the exit poll. In other words, the national popular vote total is impossible. It is far outside the possible margin of error of the national exit poll survey.

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Finding the Clues – Where Did Fraud Occur?
The exit polls were manipulated to produce at least three results. One is to get the exit polls to match the "actual" Bush margin of victory in key battleground states, the second is to match results in non-key
states where the reported vote did not match the initial exit poll in order to boost Bush’s popular vote “mandate” and the third was to get the exit polls to show that there was not a major swing toward Kerry during the last 24 hours.

The latter was necessary because if Kerry really had been winning 60 or 65
percent of the undecideds on election day (the people who made up their mind on the day of election),then it would be really hard to explain how Bush wound up winning both the popular vote and the electoral college. Instead, the exit polls were fixed to state that nationally Kerry won the voters who decided on the day of election by a scant margin of 52 to 45. The exit pollsters had a major challenge though – if they fixed the exit polls in the same way for all the states, it would be too obvious that something was amiss.

The first question is how legitimate are the results in the key battleground states that Bush ended up winning. According to the exit polls, the reason that Kerry lost Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida is not that he didn't close well but rather that he was coming from so far behind. For instance, among voters who made up their minds in the last week, we see that Kerry was winning the undecided vote quite well – anywhere from a low of a 56 to 43 margin in Iowa to a high of a 59 to 38 margin in New
Mexico (Table 3).

Table 3:
Preference of Last Week Deciders in Key Battleground States Won by Bush.
% Decided in Last Week, Voted for Kerry, Voted for Bush

Iowa 14% 56% 43%
Nevada 15% 56% 42%
Florida 11% 57% 41%
Ohio 11% 60% 40%
New Mexico 17% 59% 38%

Clearly the problem was not the lack of a strong finish on Kerry’s part. Rather, according to the fixed exit polls, the problem was that Kerry was too far behind and had too much ground to make up. Of voters who made up their minds more than one month before the election, Kerry lost big: He was so far behind by the time of the first debate on September 30, he could not make up the difference. According to the exit poll data, his deficit one month out ranged from seven points down in New Mexico to 12 points down
in Florida.

Table 4:
Preference of Voters Who Decided On their Vote More Than One Month Before the Election, Key Battleground States Won by Bush

% Decided Over 30 Days Before Election, Voted for Kerry, Voted for Bush

Iowa 74% 45% 54%
Nevada 72% 45% 54%
Florida 77% 44% 56%
Ohio 78% 45% 55%
New Mexico 71% 53% 46%

It is important to note that these voters make up the bulk of voters, so the margin of error for this item in the exit poll won’t be much greater than the overall margin of error for the exit polls. We can conclude
that, because of his strong finish in these states, if Kerry had only been behind by 2 to 5 percentage points with one month to go, he would have won most, if not all, of these five states.

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